Buffalo/Ontario Mob Acitivity

[B.]

Incidentally, who said the Bonannos have 150 soldiers?

We've had this conversation before, but in the spirit of the Groundhog Day that is this thread, let's cover it again.

- Pogo's Bonanno chart in the Charts section of this board has 141 living members listed. Count them yourself. That is not including potential Montreal members, nor does it include CWs (who count against the cap). There could easily be 9 other unidentified Bonanno members at any given time. All this considered, 150-160 members is a reasonable estimate and fits with the number they maintained under Massino (according to Massino himself).

- Do you have a problem with the standards Pogo uses to compile his charts? He uses the most reliable sources we currently have, does not take random suggestions from anonymous people on the board unless they can source their info or have proven themselves reliable. Even with a margin of error, 150 is a reasonable number when we use Pogo's chart as the basis.

Do you not think Pogo's chart is reliable? If not, you should let us know what standards should be used to compile more accurate charts because that's an important resource on these boards and has been for two decades.

Domenico Violi is being accused of thought crime by the Black Hand's own Wardens of Cancel Culture. Next thing you know he'll be accused of inciting an insurrection.

Wardens of Cancel Culture? Lol. Could you be any more dramatic?

Maybe quit bringing places like Utica or Rochester into the equation, as if they have any bearing. It smacks of desperation.

I'm having fun with this. Desperate and dramatic fun.

[SonnyBlackstein]

And it's a point that Wiseguy easily shot down. No way is the Buffalo family netting several times more recruits from its available pool than the NY and Chicago are.

Youre honestly going with his 'math'? Because Chicago has 500k and 15 members youre going to transition that into a mathmatical formula to determine the size of a family? faaaaaarkin 'ell bruv.

Again. The point, was, if you cant find thirty guys, out of FORTY THOUSAND, I dont know what youre talking about.

It's not PTSD. It's why didn't you guys learn the last time around? Do you "want to believe" that much?

Youre Being cunty. There's reasonable evidence for a case here. Stop acting like B's Mulder from the X-Files with this.

[B.]

I want Wiseguy to answer the question this time instead of evading it like last time.

What can Pogo do to improve his charts? You seem to think they're inaccurate and I'm sure Pogo won't take offense if you use your critical thinking skills to let us know how he can improve the charts section given that we all value them immensely on here and contribute to them when possible.

Pogo has greatly refined how he compiles those charts over the years and I myself have found no flaws in the standards he uses for including names. As civilians, it is the best resource we currently have on membership in the five families.

I look forward to your feedback on how to improve the charts section because we're going to use it when we add names to the Buffalo chart.

[Pogo The Clown]

But this is all based on your own assumptions on what LE does or does not know and sources they do or do not have. This same arguement has been used every time one of these 'X Family is still around/X family has been quietly rebuilding in the shadows' debates comes up. It didn't hold water then and it doesn't hold water now.

It's based on a recording of the Buffalo underboss telling a Bonanno member they have ~30 members. I don't know where this PTSD about other families comes in here.

Then I go back to what I posted earlier.


Greg Scarpa said the Profaci family had 400 made members. Gambino member Freddie Santantonio said the Gambino family had a 1,000 made members. Jimmy Frattiano said the LA family had 50 made members when he was made. And these are guys that were cooperating and directly asked and so had time to ponder the number of made members in their family before answering. It was not just a loose statement on a wire about "beating 30 guys".


And around and around we go.

[quote="Pogo The Clown" post_id=186787 time=<a href="tel:1615150447">1615150447</a> user_id=53]
And it's a point that Wiseguy easily shot down. No way is the Buffalo family netting several times more recruits from its available pool than the NY and Chicago are.

Youre honestly going with his 'math'? Because Chicago has 500k and 15 members youre going to transition that into a mathmatical formula to determine the size of a family? faaaaaarkin 'ell bruv.

Again. The point, was, if you cant find thirty guys, out of FORTY THOUSAND, I dont know what youre talking about.
[/quote]


But isn't that what you are doing? Buffalo has X amount of Italians so the local LCN must therefore be able to recruit X amout of members from it. The reverse argument works as well. Chicago and NY have X amount of Italians so they to should be able to recruits X amount of Italians like Buffalo.


And it is a largely faulty argument anyway. Pittsburgh and LA have one of the largest numbers of Italians in the country, much more than Buffalo and only behind places like NY, Philly, Boston and Chicago and yet Pittsburgh only has 1 living member and LA not much more. Places like Scranton, Youngstown, New Haven and Atlantic City have some of the highest proportions of Italians in the country but yet LCN is practically non-existent there. Why couldn't enough recruits be found among these populations to keep LCN going?


https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/hol ... americans/


Pogo

[B.]

Greg Scarpa said the Profaci family had 400 made members. Gambino member Freddie Santantonio said the Gambino family had a 1,000 made members. Jimmy Frattiano said the LA family had 50 made members when he was made. And these are guys that were cooperating and directly asked and so had time to ponder the number of made members in their family before answering. It was not just a loose statement on a wire about "beating 30 guys".

Yep, and Scarpa amended his estimate when Joe Colombo told him in 1964 that he conducted a family census and they had 114 members.

The difference is, we have information from other member sources that directly contradicts what those members once estimated and by looking at a large set of sources, patterns become evident that help us get better estimates.

This argument boils down to two points:

- You think Violi was lying.
- You think 30 is an absurdly high number for the modern WNY-Ontario family.

We have no other member sources who confirm nor deny Violi's statements, so we're left to interpret it on our own.

- While Violi may have been rounding up or down for convenience, I don't think he was outright lying.
- I don't think 30 is an absurdly high number of members for the WNY-Ontario family.

That's what we're arguing about.

[Wiseguy]

I want Wiseguy to answer the question this time instead of evading it like last time.

What can Pogo do to improve his charts? You seem to think they're inaccurate and I'm sure Pogo won't take offense if you use your critical thinking skills to let us know how he can improve the charts section given that we all value them immensely on here and contribute to them when possible.

Pogo has greatly refined how he compiles those charts over the years and I myself have found no flaws in the standards he uses for including names. As civilians, it is the best resource we currently have on membership in the five families.

I mentioned it because you specifically said soldiers and not just members.

I look forward to your feedback on how to improve the charts section because we're going to use it when we add names to the Buffalo chart.

Lol! Don't hold your breath. I don't think you'll be adding names anytime soon. More likely we'll be taking names off given their ages.

But isn't that what you are doing? Buffalo has X amount of Italians so the local LCN must therefore be able to recruit X amout of members from it. The reverse argument works as well. Chicago and NY have X amount of Italians so they to should be able to recruits X amount of Italians like Buffalo.


And it is a largely faulty argument anyway. Pittsburgh and LA have one of the largest numbers of Italians in the country, much more than Buffalo and only behind places like NY, Philly, Boston and Chicago and yet Pittsburgh only has 1 living member and LA not much more. Places like Scranton, Youngstown, New Haven and Atlantic City have some of the highest proportions of Italians in the country but yet LCN is practically non-existent there. Why couldn't enough recruits be found among these populations to keep LCN going?


https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/hol ... americans/


Pogo

Exactly. It was SonnyB's math. I took the data he used to argue Buffalo could have 30 members and simply plugged into the Italian populations of other cities, and their respective mob families, to show the problem with it. Of course, once it showed that thinking doesn't really work, now it's "my math."

Yep, and Scarpa amended his estimate when Joe Colombo told him in 1964 that he conducted a family census and they had 114 members.

The difference is, we have information from other member sources that directly contradicts what those members once estimated and by looking at a large set of sources, patterns become evident that help us get better estimates.

This argument boils down to two points:

- You think Violi was lying.
- You think 30 is an absurdly high number for the modern WNY-Ontario family.

We have no other member sources who confirm nor deny Violi's statements, so we're left to interpret it on our own.

- While Violi may have been rounding up or down for convenience, I don't think he was outright lying.
- I don't think 30 is an absurdly high number of members for the WNY-Ontario family.

That's what we're arguing about.

The "30 isn't an absurdly high number for the area" argument conveniently ignores all the evidence against it that we've repeated ad nauseum. Sure, 30 doesn't sound like all that much when taken out of context.

Of course, when one considers the clear, documented membership decline over the past 30 years, the relative lack of activity over the past 20+ years, what law enforcement is on the record as saying about the state of the Buffalo LCN, how no other family has two-thirds of its membership unidentified, and so on, 30 does begin to look problematic. Especially when it's coming from a single source.

But that single source holds more weight for you guys than everything else. And you're left scrambling to justify it, i.e. equating media hype with a change of view on the part of law enforcement, arguing the entire region of upstate New York and Ontario is in play here, etc.

Old man Todaro, who's up to his elbows in pizza dough all day, has suddenly become this mastermind criminal who's active but the FBI can't touch, working with the Ndrangheta have hits carried out in Canada, owning billion dollar hotels in Florida (his HQ apparently), etc.

[B.]

What's your goal?

Do you not want people to discuss what a high-ranking Buffalo member source said on tape about the Buffalo family in an investigation that included multiple US Cosa Nostra families? There is no known member source that has refuted his information. The FBI relies on member sources, either through cooperation or recording, and no public information has been released since the Morena investigation where a member source refutes what Violi said.

Do you not want people to discuss the arrests of close relatives and associates of Buffalo mafia members, and the potential connection this might have to an organization that as of the mid-2010s was confirmed to exist?

Are you hoping to shut the discussion down? I guess I don't understand where you're coming from at all at this point. I appreciate counterpoint, but you're operating on this idea that grandiose fan-fiction is being written by all of the people you're arguing with when the reality is you're just being unnecessarily condescending to the few people who care as much about this subject as you do.

A lot of interesting information has come out in this thread since it started. Many of us have both learned and contributed a lot about the Buffalo family and its history, relationships, and connections. Some of it is relevant to present day, some of it isn't. There are many questions and the vast majority of people in this thread have open minds. Aside from jokes here and there, most of what you're fighting seems to be as much of a fantasy as the idea that Buffalo is a massive criminal syndicate.

[johnny_scootch]

the reality is you're just being unnecessarily condescending to the few people who care as much about this subject as you do.

[SonnyBlackstein]

But isn't that what you are doing? Buffalo has X amount of Italians so the local LCN must therefore be able to recruit X amout of members from it. The reverse argument works as well. Chicago and NY have X amount of Italians so they to should be able to recruits X amount of Italians like Buffalo.


And it is a largely faulty argument anyway. Pittsburgh and LA have one of the largest numbers of Italians in the country, much more than Buffalo and only behind places like NY, Philly, Boston and Chicago and yet Pittsburgh only has 1 living member and LA not much more. Places like Scranton, Youngstown, New Haven and Atlantic City have some of the highest proportions of Italians in the country but yet LCN is practically non-existent there. Why couldn't enough recruits be found among these populations to keep LCN going?

Because Im not the one saying Buffalo having 30 guys is ludicrous. You are.
I cited the demographics to illustrate the relative scope.

If Chicago had 150 members, Id say yeah, cool, there's 500 thousand Italians in the city, carry on. Chicago's down to 15? Great, they're not looking, for whatever reason they're happy to let it die out. But IF you were looking you think out of 40k you couldnt fill 30 slots?

See I find filling 30 slots out of forty thousand believable, you and WG find it ludicrous.

And round and round we go.

[SonnyBlackstein]

What's your goal?

Do you not want people to discuss what a high-ranking Buffalo member source said on tape about the Buffalo family in an investigation that included multiple US Cosa Nostra families? There is no known member source that has refuted his information. The FBI relies on member sources, either through cooperation or recording, and no public information has been released since the Morena investigation where a member source refutes what Violi said.

Do you not want people to discuss the arrests of close relatives and associates of Buffalo mafia members, and the potential connection this might have to an organization that as of the mid-2010s was confirmed to exist?

Are you hoping to shut the discussion down? I guess I don't understand where you're coming from at all at this point. I appreciate counterpoint, but you're operating on this idea that grandiose fan-fiction is being written by all of the people you're arguing with when the reality is you're just being unnecessarily condescending to the few people who care as much about this subject as you do.

A lot of interesting information has come out in this thread since it started. Many of us have both learned and contributed a lot about the Buffalo family and its history, relationships, and connections. Some of it is relevant to present day, some of it isn't. There are many questions and the vast majority of people in this thread have open minds. Aside from jokes here and there, most of what you're fighting seems to be as much of a fantasy as the idea that Buffalo is a massive criminal syndicate.

B.
Babe Ruth.
Out of the park.

[Grouchy Sinatra]

Should be getting Franzese, Gravano and Alite stories about Buffalo in 3...2....

[Wiseguy]

What's your goal?

To discuss without the bullshit getting too high and deep. If somebody was looking for examples of how quickly things can get carried away with speculation and exaggeration, this thread would be a good start. Just saying.

Because Im not the one saying Buffalo having 30 guys is ludicrous. You are.
I cited the demographics to illustrate the relative scope.

If Chicago had 150 members, Id say yeah, cool, there's 500 thousand Italians in the city, carry on. Chicago's down to 15? Great, they're not looking, for whatever reason they're happy to let it die out. But IF you were looking you think out of 40k you couldnt fill 30 slots?

See I find filling 30 slots out of forty thousand believable, you and WG find it ludicrous.

When exactly was Buffalo looking? Because going from 45 members in 1989 to 34 members in 1997, it doesn't seem like they were looking all that hard. Nor does it appear they were exactly searching far and wide between then and when they were down to 23 members in 2006. And the recruiting seems to have really hit a wall between then and today when they now have 12 members we can list.

Were they recruiting all along during these last 30 years? And if so, how did they manage to keep every new member - some 20 new guys - a secret? Or was it a case of the family - for whatever inexplicable, never-before-done reason - deciding to start making new members in large numbers at some point in particular? And why haven't we identified anyone else except an extended family in Hamilton where one guy was made and two others were offered their buttons? This is keeping me up at night.

And round and round we go.

Indeed.

[Pogo The Clown]

Exactly. If present day Buffalo is able to recruit new members out of their Italian pool at proportionally several times the rate of NY, Philly and Chicago then why weren't they doing so all along? Why weren't they doing it from the 1970s-2000s as their numbers plummeted? Why did they wait until they were down to a dozen elderly, mostly retired, members to suddenly start tapping into pool?


As for member sources we only recently learned that back in the 1960s and early 1970s about half the members in SF and SJ were cooperating, including the former SF Boss. Same for the member informants in all the other families across the country including some pretty surprising names. We only know this stuff now because files from the 1960s were finally made available. We have yet to see a similar document dump for the 1980s-2010s. Though we can safely say that this period too would be riddled with confidential member informants across the country. We recently just learned, by accident, that the recent Chicago Boss John DiFronzo was most likely cooperating.


So we can safely assume that LE's public statments on the Buffalo membership and overall state from the 1980s-present is based on equally credible sources.


Pogo

[Patrickgold]

Exactly. If present day Buffalo is able to recruit new members out of their Italian pool at proportionally several times the rate of NY, Philly and Chicago then why weren't they doing so all along? Why weren't they doing it from the 1970s-2000s as their numbers plummeted? Why did they wait until they were down to a dozen elderly, mostly retired, members to suddenly start tapping into pool?


As for member sources we only recently learned that back in the 1960s and early 1970s about half the members in SF and SJ were cooperating, including the former SF Boss. Same for the member informants in all the other families across the country including some pretty surprising names. We only know this stuff now because files from the 1960s were finally made available. We have yet to see a similar document dump for the 1980s-2010s. Though we can safely say that this period too would be riddled with confidential member informants across the country. We recently just learned, by accident, that the recent Chicago Boss John DiFronzo was most likely cooperating.


So we can safely assume that LE's public statments on the Buffalo membership and overall state from the 1980s-present is based on equally credible sources.


Pogo

Many families chose not to make members for various reasons. Some being greed and the others so there would be less of a chance of informants. Not saying that is the case for Buffalo but it’s a possibility.

Can you expand on how it was revealed by accident that DiFronzo was cooperating with the government? I know Red and Fosco have said that in the past. Is there something new that came out?

[SonnyBlackstein]

What's your goal?

To discuss without the bullshit getting too high and deep. If somebody was looking for examples of how quickly things can get carried away with speculation and exaggeration, this thread would be a good start. Just saying.

See I never voted for you to be the forum bullshit moderator. Drop your sash in the bin.
Your personal level of 'exasperation', at our relative stupidity, is YOUR fault, not ours. You dont need to share it.

Stop making it hard to have a third party discussion.
Juss sayen

Exactly. If present day Buffalo is able to recruit new members out of their Italian pool at proportionally several times the rate of NY, Philly and Chicago then why weren't they doing so all along? Why weren't they doing it from the 1970s-2000s as their numbers plummeted? Why did they wait until they were down to a dozen elderly, mostly retired, members to suddenly start tapping into pool?

Stop. Using. A. Non-existent. Formula.

There is no ratio that for every X Italians = X buttons. Stop now.

Youre arguing a why against a what.

Im NOT arguing the Why's here, im saying logistically its reasonable. Youre being unreasonable, logistically.