Pogo's 2020 NYC Membership Numbers

[B.]

Pogo's charts are the best online public resource for identifying the known membership of each NYC family. He has rigid standards for who he includes on the charts, primarily through confirmation from LE, Capeci, FBI reports, court cases, and select board members who have proven to have access to reputable resources. He has also learned through trial and error what works, as he has been doing this since Al Gore invented the internet.

Preliminary Notes:
- These charts do not reflect all of the information known to LE or the FBI. The FBI does not make member identifications public except in specific circumstances (i.e. indictments or press releases), or when FOIA requests pull the info out of them. Occasionally documents or information becomes available for other reasons, including through journalists and public interviews with mafia figures, but this is rare.

- In most cases, the FBI requires multiple sources corroborating the identify of a member before including them as a confirmed member. This means that they may have many names in their files who have been mentioned by one or two sources as a member, but they do not have enough corroboration to formally include them on their membership lists. A possible exception is when a confirmed made member provides the information to the FBI directly or they obtain a recording of a confirmed made member discussing someone's title or membership.

- We don't know the exact formula the FBI uses to calculate membership estimates. Is this based on all confirmed members + uncorroborated members known to them? Is it an exact science? Is it a generalization based on historical trends and the extent of their current knowledge? They haven't shared their process which makes it difficult to analyze.

- While the FBI has extensive knowledge, they don't have total knowledge of what is still in theory a secret society. With this in mind, the FBI is always catching up to what happens within the mafia. They might catch up almost instantly in some cases, but they are still one step behind the mafia, as an event has to first happen within the mafia for the FBI to find out about it.

- Mafia members are also always playing catch up. Mafia members don't know the identity of every member in NYC, in their own family, or sometimes even within their own crew. Some members are better connected than others, too, and this isn't always because of their rank.

Pogo's Numbers:

- There may be one or two small mistakes I made when totaling these up. If you notice a mistake that goes beyond a small margin of error, please let me know and I will adjust.

- Along the lines of there being unidentified members who are not on these lists, there are inevitably confirmed members who have died that we are unaware of. The margin of error based on deaths is likely low.

- We have no idea how many unidentified members are not on these lists so there is no way I can try to measure it, but we can look at the historical size, the alleged caps, info from cooperators, and other circumstantial info to gauge which families might have significantly more members.

- Living CWs are included, as multiple member sources have confirmed that the families still count CWs as members. They take up a membership slot and cannot be replaced until they die, just like an active member who has not cooperated. Obviously they are no longer participating in the organization, but the organization still considers them members which is why I am including them in the final total. If you disagree with this, feel free to subtract the number in your mind, but this is the view of the organization itself which is the final authority on mafia membership.

- Along the lines of the last point, these estimates are concerned almost entirely with "slots". It does not factor in intangible / immeasurable factors like "activity" determined by criminal operations, age, incarceration, etc. This is about mafia membership.

Gambino
155 Confirmed Members
+ 5 Possible Members
+ 9 Living CWs
= 164-169 Members

Bonanno
140 Confirmed Members
+ 3 Possible Members
+ 16 Living CWs
= 156-159 Members

Genovese
145 Confirmed Members
+ 6 Possible Members
+ 5 Living CWs
= 150-156 Members

Lucchese
105 Confirmed Members
+ 3 Possible Members
+ 10 Living CWs
= 115-118 Members

Colombo
72 Confirmed Members
+ 8 Possible Members
+ 13 Living CWs
= 85 - 93 Members

Summary:


- The totals for the Bonanno and Lucchese family closely match some historical estimates of their size and are fairly close to what we know of their alleged caps. The extensive cooperation in the Bonanno family is an indication that we have a more thorough view into their organization than others. Still, this does not factor in potential Canadian members that were inducted into the Bonanno family and are still living, so their numbers could in fact be larger (in 1964, a high-ranking Bonanno member was recorded giving an estimate of ~182 members).

- While smaller than the Lucchese and Bonanno groups, the Colombo number is not as low as one might think when taking into consideration that they had 114 members when Joe Colombo took over in the early-mid 1960s (as reported by Scarpa who was given this number directly from Colombo, who had conducted a census via his captains). Given they may have other unidentified/unconfirmed members, they may very well have close to 100 slots filled.

- The Gambino and Genovese families are clearly larger than these numbers suggest. The larger a group is and the more varied their "territory", the more likely that members have been unidentified / unconfirmed. While the margin of error might not be higher for these groups, their larger size increases the quantity affected by that margin of error. Obviously the Genovese family is not smaller than the Bonanno family. Less powerful, yes, but we know their numbers are higher.

- We can't ignore the +2 rule. The +2 rule allows each family to induct 2 new members around Christmas without having to replace a deceased member, which is the normal induction protocol. This rule was created to compensate for incarcerated members, CWs, and possibly murdered members they couldn't otherwise replace. The creation of this rule implies that the families have operated close to their cap levels. If they weren't operating close to their cap level they could continue replacing deceased members as usual, but this implies they were were near their caps but suffering from a lack of "active" members which is why they needed to augment their induction rule. We don't know if they still use the +2 rule.

--

Thanks to Pogo for keeping these lists updated, holding high standards for these lists, and giving us a constant point of reference for names, ranks, status, and other details on these groups that we're all autistically fascinated by for some insane reason.

[Wiseguy]

Obviously the Genovese family is not smaller than the Bonanno family. Less powerful, yes, but we know their numbers are higher.

Wait, what?

[B.]

I completely forgot to include the formula:

(Confirmed membership) x (Number of indictments in last 15 years) ÷ (Average age of confirmed membership) - (Median of historical membership estimates) + 2 = (Power)

[Pogo The Clown]

Thanks for the kind words B. It's appreciated.

We don't know the exact formula the FBI uses to calculate membership estimates. Is this based on all confirmed members + uncorroborated members known to them? Is it an exact science? Is it a generalization based on historical trends and the extent of their current knowledge? They haven't shared their process which makes it difficult to analyze.

I don't know if it applies to NY (though I'm sure it would) but for the Philly numbers they don't count members who have flipped.


Pogo

[B.]

Thanks for the kind words B. It's appreciated.

We don't know the exact formula the FBI uses to calculate membership estimates. Is this based on all confirmed members + uncorroborated members known to them? Is it an exact science? Is it a generalization based on historical trends and the extent of their current knowledge? They haven't shared their process which makes it difficult to analyze.

I don't know if it applies to NY (though I'm sure it would) but for the Philly numbers they don't count members who have flipped.


Pogo

Yeah, I don't think the FBI includes members who have flipped in any of their estimates. I doubt the families themselves think about CWs as members in any practical way, only as a technicality if and when it comes up in relation to membership slots. It also adds to the "black eye" of having a member flip, as in the back of their minds they know that person is still a member.

No idea if the Philly family itself still counts CWs as "filled slots", or for that matter if they have a cap, replace deceased members, or anything else. In all the years of researching Philly I don't remember ever seeing anything about new members replacing deceased members. Considering they have gradually dropped from 90+ members at their peak to what they have now, with some valleys in between, they obviously have a ways to go before they need to worry about those details.

[B.]

A fun experiment would be to see the families forgive all previous cooperation and welcome all of the CWs back into the fold. Would love to see which guys jumped back in. You have the honest guys like Caramandi and D'Arco who have always said they miss the life, but would love to see how many of the so-called "reformed" CWs would suddenly buy a new tracksuit and be on the street corner the next morning.

[UTC]

Obviously the Genovese family is not smaller than the Bonanno family. Less powerful, yes, but we know their numbers are higher.

Wait, what?

He couldn't have meant how it literally would read.

[B.]

I knew that might be controversial, but you'll just have to trust the formula:

(Confirmed membership) x (Number of indictments in last 15 years) ÷ (Average age of confirmed membership) - (Median of historical membership estimates) + 2 = (Power)

[SonnyBlackstein]

Great post B.

In B, we trust.

[B.]

Don't trust me. Trust Mafia Math. It's how illiterate, uneducated guys on the corner can calculate the vig on a refinanced street loan without writing a single number down. Like Rainman with a pinky ring.

[johnny_scootch]

I knew that might be controversial, but you'll just have to trust the formula:

(Confirmed membership) x (Number of indictments in last 15 years) ÷ (Average age of confirmed membership) - (Median of historical membership estimates) + 2 = (Power)

Hahahahaha

B, good job well done.

Pogo too.

[Confederate]

You guys forgot to factor into the fact that the F.B.I. in Buffalo purposely denies the existence of the Buffalo Family which allows them to operate right under their noses with impunity. Therefore, the Buffalo Family is the most powerful in America.

[B.]

Should have known that joking around at all would open up the gates to everything.

All joking is done.

I ask that the mods delete any further discussion of Buffalo, Canada, Chicago, or anything else that leads to the usual quagmire unless it is used sincerely in the context of current NYC membership numbers and related topics.

[Wiseguy]

Should have known that joking around at all would open up the gates to everything.

All joking is done.

I ask that the mods delete any further discussion of Buffalo, Canada, Chicago, or anything else that leads to the usual quagmire unless it is used sincerely in the context of current NYC membership numbers and related topics.

Sooooo....you were joking about the Bonannos and Genovese, this "Mafia Math," etc.?

Sorry, it's not always easy to tell online.

[Bklyn21]

Thanks for the kind words B. It's appreciated.

We don't know the exact formula the FBI uses to calculate membership estimates. Is this based on all confirmed members + uncorroborated members known to them? Is it an exact science? Is it a generalization based on historical trends and the extent of their current knowledge? They haven't shared their process which makes it difficult to analyze.

I don't know if it applies to NY (though I'm sure it would) but for the Philly numbers they don't count members who have flipped.


Pogo

Yeah, I don't think the FBI includes members who have flipped in any of their estimates. I doubt the families themselves think about CWs as members in any practical way, only as a technicality if and when it comes up in relation to membership slots. It also adds to the "black eye" of having a member flip, as in the back of their minds they know that person is still a member.

No idea if the Philly family itself still counts CWs as "filled slots", or for that matter if they have a cap, replace deceased members, or anything else. In all the years of researching Philly I don't remember ever seeing anything about new members replacing deceased members. Considering they have gradually dropped from 90+ members at their peak to what they have now, with some valleys in between, they obviously have a ways to go before they need to worry about those details.

Who was it who said the families still considered members who flipped an cooperated were still members until they died naturally or were killed ? I know over the years a few members including high ranking figures , Bosses and others have stated this . Can't remember exactly who but it was stated . Maybe Dileonardo , Vitals , Massino , D'arco ? Or others ? But I remember reading this , Maybe in testimony ? But I could never understand this point of view that an inducted member waa still a member until death whether they cooperated or not. Maybe someone knows who I'm talking about ? Any Info ? Great Post guys !!!