Genovese and Bonannos strongest

[Pogo The Clown]

Counting the guy's in prison at the time (Spero, Lino, Coppa, Attanasio, Asaro, DiFiore, Amato, Benanti, Cerasani, etc) and the deaths from the late 90s-2001 it is possible that they dipped to 85 members on the street for a period before they opened the books again in 2001.


It also looks like the 2000/1 figures don't include the Montreal members while the 2004 figure does.


Pogo

[Lupara]

Counting the guy's in prison at the time (Spero, Lino, Coppa, Attanasio, Asaro, DiFiore, Amato, Benanti, Cerasani, etc) and the deaths from the late 90s-2001 it is possible that they dipped to 85 members on the street for a period before they opened the books again in 2001.


It also looks like the 2000/1 figures don't include the Montreal members while the 2004 figure does.


Pogo

I think the numbers in most cases only included New York. With the 20 guys in Montreal the Bonannos could have approached 150.

[Pogo The Clown]

Looking over this again it looks like the lower Colombo figures are correct.


We know that the Colombos books were closed from 1992-2000. We also know that from 2000-early 2004 they made 9 new members. During that same 1992-20004 period they lost at least 35 due to death and defections (there are no doubt many more members who died during this peroid that I missed). So the numbers match up.


Going forward we know that from 1992-2016 they lost at least 69 members (again likely many more) while during 1992-early 2011 they made 23 new members. No doubt they have made new members since early 2011 but clearly not enough to make up for all the losses that they suffered. So the Colombos have to be much smaller than previously thought.


Pogo

[SonnyBlackstein]

...while during 1992-early 2011 they made 23 new members.

It's obviously likely there are more than a few made unknown, possibly many.

I think the Feds understand attrition. The members dying vs being replaced theory. I'm inclined to follow their numbers as a general rule.

[Pogo The Clown]

Doubtful that anyone was missed. Seven of the guys made during this era have flipped and provided detailed accounts on the Colombo ceremonies from 2000-early 2011 which JD has posted up. They also established that the Colombos books were closed from 1992-early 2000 (my guess is as a consequence of the Colombo War and its aftermath).


The last exact Fed number was 65 in early 2004 which matches up with the math. The Colombos lost about 50 members from 1991-early 2004 while they only made 9 new members during the same period.


Pogo

[Wiseguy]

Except I'm not sure that was an exact fed number. It was one article from 2004. That same year, the New Jersey OC report cited 112 members. There also approximately 100 members cited in articles in 2007, 2009, and 2014. I suppose it's possible the family could dip down considerably if they fail to make enough members to keep up with deaths over a certain period of time - though its almost impossible to believe the Colombos made only 9 new members from 1991 to 2004. Considering all the evidence, I don't see much reason to give that one article with a 65 member outlier figure so much weight and assume that's where the Colombos generally are now.

And like I said before, you can go back and look at those two articles from the same writer in 2002 and 2004. In 2002, he had the Colombos at 90 members. Two years later, in 2004, he has them at 65. Well, 69 if you count the 4 guys listed in the administration. So that means not only would the family have had over 20 members die in the space of two years, they also didn't make any new members during this time.

This is why I always try to look at all sources and evidence and weigh it in the balance and not focus too much on one source or figure.

[Pogo The Clown]

A lot of those articles just keep repeating the same general estimates that never change. I tend to go more with exact numbers that match up with the math.


We know the Colombos were barred from making any new members from 1992-early 2000. We also know from the informants that from February 2000-early 2004 9 new members were made. Even if we want to make an allowance for more members being made it is clear that it still doesn't come close to replacing the 50 or so they lost during the same time period.


It also not that hard to believe since we know that by the end of 1975 the family had dipped to only 76 members before the books were opened again.


Pogo

[Pogo The Clown]

Also for the sake of argument let's say there were some ceremonies missed. We also must add the members made since early 2011. So let's be really generous and double the 23 number to 46. It still doesn't come close to replacing the well over 70 members who were lost during the same period.


Pogo

[Wiseguy]

I recognize the difference between a seemingly specific figure and a general estimate, though those general estimates I've mentioned in this thread have come from articles citing law enforcement sources or experts like Capeci. The 112 member figure for the Colombos in the 2004 NJ OC report always stuck out to me because it seemed to be an exact figure and not a general estimate.

Beyond that, you can look at the Colombo chart on this forum. I count 89 members listed, as well as 4 other possible members. And one has to assume there are always some members who have not been identified. So the chart you've compiled seems to match up well with the figures we generally see.

[Pogo The Clown]

Keep in mind that there are likely several members on my list who have died and we haven't heard. We also have to keep in mind that sometimes guys are listed as members in articles when they are actually not made. If I had to make a prediction I would put the current membership of the Colombos somewhere in the 70s range today.


Pogo

[SonnyBlackstein]

Keep in mind that there are likely several members on my list who have died and we haven't heard. We also have to keep in mind that sometimes guys are listed as members in articles when they are actually not made. If I had to make a prediction I would put the current membership of the Colombos somewhere in the 70s range today.


Pogo

Do you genuinely not think that the Feds haven't thought of this?
IE members dying?

I just think it a little strange that you're acting as though this could be new found information which would change the way the current families are understood to be in size by Federal authorities and professional observers. IE Bizarrely all of them havent for some unknown reason factored in members dying.

Genuine question. I know it may sound like the above is derogatory but Im genuinely surprised that'd you'd think this wasnt already factored in.

[Pogo The Clown]

All I'm saying is that the math better supports the lower exact numbers that have been released versus the higher estimate numbers that have been released. It also not out of left field either since Capeci had the Colombos at 75-85 members in 2005 which is supported by the math for this period.


Pogo

[Stroccos]

Keep in mind that there are likely several members on my list who have died and we haven't heard. We also have to keep in mind that sometimes guys are listed as members in articles when they are actually not made. If I had to make a prediction I would put the current membership of the Colombos somewhere in the 70s range today.


Pogo

Do you genuinely not think that the Feds haven't thought of this?
IE members dying?

I just think it a little strange that you're acting as though this could be new found information which would change the way the current families are understood to be in size by Federal authorities and professional observers. IE Bizarrely all of them havent for some unknown reason factored in members dying.

Genuine question. I know it may sound like the above is derogatory but Im genuinely surprised that'd you'd think this wasnt already factored in.

the goverment agencies may want to inflate the numbers them selfs , if the famlies get to small they will slash the budgets.

[SonnyBlackstein]

The Feds also have very strict rules on verifying 'made' men.

They don't just pluck numbers from their ass. They're numbers based on a good deal of evidence.

Except apparently they forget the black sharpie when someone cashes in their chips.

[Stroccos]

The Feds also have very strict rules on verifying 'made' men.

They don't just pluck numbers from their ass. They're numbers based on a good deal of evidence.

Except apparently they forget the black sharpie when someone cashes in their chips.

how do you know this?
Say a low level made member in his 80's goes ina nursing home for 5 years and dies , is inactive you really think the feds are tracking that guy?ad