B. wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 2:08 pm
That's two high-level NYC-NJ sources who place the Chicago Family around that size in that period. On the DeCarlo tapes they also referred to Chicago having around 50 members.
Yup. While this isn’t definitive, it’s important. Before, it was hard to know if DeCarlo was being precise and speaking literally, or just speaking in generalizations (ie, Chicago having a smaller membership than the NY Families). But with two sources like this placing the number around 50, this is looking to be the best indicator for a rough estimate of the actual membership.
Now, we have further indication I think that ~50 wasn’t a random number. As Snakes has noted before, the combination of the 1985 FBI list and guys that we know were made by then, give or take a couple of errors and allowing for a few sleepers, gives us 50-60 members, while the FBI estimate in ‘93 was 49. So this seems like the most likely historic membership range, based on what we know at this point. We have no indication that Chicago had a cap like the NYC Families, and presumably wouldn’t have had any reason to (there was no issue of balance of power between multiple Families that would necessitate an explicit cap), but if the membership was the same from the 60s through the 90s, this may well have been the number that they choose to maintain. While it’s always possible that there had been a larger number at some point in the further past and they just never replaced a bunch of guys when they were lost to attrition, I don’t think there’s any strong reason to assume that it would’ve ever been much larger. 50-60 is already a relatively large number in comparison to most Families in both Sicily and the US, and there never would’ve been a local “arms race” dynamic in Chicago, as there was in 1920s NYC, where Families were incentivized to increase their memberships in order to shore up power.