B. wrote: ↑Sun May 01, 2022 8:38 pm
Most people agree the mafia has declined, but one of the issues is there isn't really concensus over how sharply it's declined. Available evidence has made me very consvervative about the size and scope of the mafia at its peak, so even though I see an obvious decline I don't always agree with the steepness.
- For example, Ray DeCarlo was recorded saying the Chicago Family had around 50 members in the 1960s and were highly exclusive about who they brought in. Some sources have speculated the Family had 150+ members and I don't know what's true, but I'm more likely to lean toward a smaller size based on common trends in Families outside of the East Coast and particularly in the Midwest.
- When talking about the famed 28 confirmed members in the 2000s, I agree the Family's size was likely diminished (even if we include Frank Calabrese's alleged "sleepers" who weren't on LE lists) but a 50 member org that became a 30 member org is going to be a different conversation than a 150 member org that declined to 30 members.
If we're going to pretend this is a scientific process where we can actually measure the decline of a Cosa Nostra organization, we have to have some level of concensus as to what the organization consisted of at its peak. We've learned a lot about that time period, but as CC's chart projects show, we're still missing many important details and our view isn't comprehensive, nor is LE's (even when an admin member cooperates we're still missing details). We can all agree there's been a decline, but it's intellectually dishonest to pretend the decline can be accurately measured/quantified or that the patterns are identical in every organization.
It's also made more difficult by the fact that FBI data has never been comprehensive and they have always relied on member sources and wiretaps to accurately assess a given organization. Some people take the approach that from the 1980s onward the FBI has not only had a comprehensive view into each of these organizations but that this information has all been made publicly available -- from this POV, we know everthing there is to know and all that's left to do is count off the confirmed members who have died off until we can label an org "defunct" or "nonviable". Any alternative to this POV is framed as cheerleading, wishful thinking, or fantasy.
I've got no issue with someone pointing out the decline. I agree with it and general evidence supports it. Where things get mixed up is when people try to measure the decline or use this downward trend to gatekeep and repress any discussion that strays from that narrative.
Consensus among who? If you mean people on this forum, apparently not. As far as law enforcement is concerned, that's another matter. We can see that in statements people like Jeffrey Sallet have made when he said the Outfit is "running on fumes" and the LCN outside of New York "isn't a priority for law enforcement" anymore. We can see that in the relatively minimal manpower they devote to investigating the Outfit. We see that in the last really significant cases being the Family Secrets case in 2007 and the Sarno case in 2009. I'm not sure we'll ever see one like those again. We also see it in the breakdown of the hierarchical structure. Going from 7 crews down to 4 at the time of Family Secrets, and probably even less than that now.
Another part of this breakdown is lack of clarity about who is running things, and I'm not talking in the good sense of the Genovese family circa 1970s. If I remember correctly, when DeLaurentis' and Vena's names were thrown out by "mob watchers" in that Goudie piece, it seemed it was a simply a best guess or who they thought was most likely the top guys. Apparently, according to one informant, Sarno was kicking up to DiFronzo. But in many ways the Outfit seems to have basically been the Cicero/Melrose Park show for years now. Most things seem to revolving around that one crew. You don't see much activity from Grand Avenue or 26th Street, let alone Elwood Park. Once you stop seeing the feds putting out a real flow chart of administration, crew bosses, and soldiers, that tells you something. And even if they did, you'd have a few small crews of mostly retired guys.
As far as membership, I'm not sure how helpful it is to go back to the 1960s for a comment from a guy from another family about their size. If there's a lack of consensus, it's probably about the peak membership of the Outfit, as well as when that even was. As with other families, the 1980s is when we start seeing more consistent figures from the FBI for the Outfit. Yes, they were still intel gathering at that point but it wasn't like the 1960s. Over a 15 year period, from 1984 to 1999, 8 figures from the FBI ranged from 41 to 51 members, the last one being 47 members. Fast forward to 28 members in 2007 and that's about a 40% decline. Several more have died since then. These are facts anyone can look at. Beyond that we get into speculation.
Even if we assume they had more ceremonies after the 1990s, or there are some "sleepers," does anyone think it's going to be in numbers sufficient to make that big of difference to that list I posted earlier in this thread? I don't think a scientific process is necessarily needed to observe the decline. It's not rocket science. And what's intellectually dishonest is giving the gaps intelligence equal weight to what we do know, or as a basis for endless speculation. The blind spots with the Outfit have probably been more abused than any other family. While it may be theoretically possible for the Outfit to currently be at something like 20-25 members (if we assume some things), left unchecked we've seen how that speculation can quickly grow the figures into ridiculous numbers. Nobody has said the FBI knows every last thing about the Outfit, but they do have a good handle on things, and anyone claiming there is a significant amount of guys flying under the radar in 2022 is the one trying to push a narrative.
All roads lead to New York.
that’s funny stuff
